2/03/2006

Super Bowl Box Pool Analysis

I am officially in 4 Super Bowl box pools. In the spirit of that - I wanted to share some analysis and history of this event. It was done by a guy named Rick Deutsch (who I don't know - but learned he used to go out with one of my friends in high school) Here it is:
Ah yes, it's that time of year again...Super Bowl Boxes are being
filled out as we speak! A time when friendly office competition turns
ugly, when any man's 10 spot is as green as the next, and a time when
the most annoying pr*ck in the office beats your numbers on a
meaningless interception return in the waning moments of the game. Of
course, for the eternal optimists in every office, it's also a time
when every combination of numbers seems conceivable: "Hey, all I need
is two safeties, 7 field goals, a missed extra point and a flash flood
inside the dome and my 5/5 is lookin' pretty good!" Well, to shed some
undeniable light on the chances of your numbers actually hitting, here
is a statistical analysis of the winning box numbers from the last 10
Super Bowls (EDITORIAL NOTE: as an video editor, I have a lot of "down
time" when the computer renders effects, so please spare me the 'lots
of time on your hands' comments)...

PERCENT CHANCES THAT ANY SINGLE NUMBER WILL HIT:

7 - 23.75%
0 - 22.5%
4 - 18.75%
3 - 12.5%
6 - 6.25%
1 - 6.25%
9 - 5%
5 - 2.5%
2 - 1.25%
8 - 1.25%

SOME OTHER THINGS TO CHEW ON:

- In the last 10 years, no other number but 0, 3, 4, or 7 has hit in
the first quarter!

- In the last 10 years, except for a single hit each by the number 6
and the number 9, no other number but 0, 3, 4, or 7 has hit in the
first HALF!

- The number 5 has only hit twice in the last ten years, and both
occurences happened in consecutive quarters. The last time the number
5 hit was in 1997.

- The numbers 2 and 8 have only hit once each in the last 10 years.
They were both numbers in the final score of the game.

- The numbers 1, 4 and 7 have by far the best chances of making it
into the final score -- each has a 20% chance. Number 9 has a 10%
chance, and every other number has a %5 chance, including everyone's
favorite, Number 0 (only one appearance in 20 chances)!

- While they may seem like good numbers individually, some
combinations just don't seem to hit. 0/1 hasn't hit in the last 10
years. In fact, 0 hit with 9 once in the last 10 years, but 0 has
never hit with any number other than 0, 3, 4, or 7. 6/3 has only hit
once (and it was as a final score) and so has 6/6 -- 6 has only ever
hit with a 3, 6, or 7. While 0 is a phenomenal first half number, it's
a pretty bad second half number, with only 3 appearances in the last 10
years and only one appearance in the final score (0/7). You have
almost as good a chance as hitting a 5 in the second half as you do a 0
(2 appearances in the second half compared to 0's 3 appearances), and
an equal chance of hitting a 9 (also 3 appearances).

- The best double numbers (ie, 0/0, 3/3, 4/4) are 0/0 (4 hits) and
7/7 (3 hits). Only 3/3, 6/6, and 4/4 have ever hit, but only once
each. No other double number has hit in the last 10 years.

WINNING #'s BY QUARTER - LAST 10 YEARS:

2005 -
Q1 = 0/0
Q2 = 7/7
Q3 = 4/4
Final = 4/1

2004 -
Q1 = 0/0
Q2 = 0/4
Q3 = 0/4
Final = 2/9

2003 -
Q1 = 3/3
Q2 = 3/0
Q3 = 9/4
Final = 8/1

2002 -
Q1 = 3/0
Q2 = 3/4
Q3 = 3/7
Final = 0/7

2001 -
Q1 = 7/0
Q2 = 0/0
Q3 = 4/7
Final = 4/7

2000 -
Q1 = 3/0
Q2 = 9/0
Q3 = 6/6
Final = 3/6

1999 -
Q1 = 7/3
Q2 = 7/6
Q3 = 7/6
Final = 4/9

1998 -
Q1 = 7/7
Q2 = 4/7
Q3 = 7/4
Final = 4/1

1997 -
Q1 = 4/0
Q2 = 4/7
Q3 = 1/5
Final = 1/5

1996 -
Q1 = 0/0
Q2 = 3/7
Q3 = 0/7
Final = 7/7

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